House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill) does not want to bring CAFTA to the floor unless he is within a five to 10 vote margin of winning. |
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With a vote likely just days away, the White House remains well short of the 218 votes needed to secure House approval of the US-Central America free trade agreement - and will need to not only win over still undecided members, but a sizeable chunk of those currently opposed (WTD, 7/22/05). According to WTD's latest tally of members' offices, 224 members - 43 Republicans, 180 Democrats and one Independent - say they will or are likely to vote against the CAFTA implementing legislation (HR 3045). Supporters total 147 - 140 Republicans and 7 Democrats. That puts opponents over the top, but 63 members are undecided - 48 Republicans and 15 Democrats, according to the survey. Based on those members' previous voting records, the districts they represent and previous statements, WTD's conservative estimate is that most of the "undecided" are likely to vote for CAFTA. WTD predicts that CAFTA supporters will pick up 46 undecided members - 39 Republicans and 7 Democrats. That would take supporters up to 192 votes - and bring opponents to 242. But House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill) does not want to bring CAFTA to the floor unless he is within a five to 10 vote margin of winning, a Republican leadership aide told WTD. Republican leaders having been pushing for a vote this week, before Congress adjourns for its five-week summer break. This week's floor schedule indicates CAFTA could come to the House floor as early as Wednesday. 218 Votes There are 434 voting members of Congress - with one vacant seat. A simple majority is needed for passage; a tie vote means defeat. The House on Tuesday is slated to vote on legislation (HR 3283) targeted at trade problems with China that leaders are hoping will make it easier for some Republicans to vote for CAFTA. A number of still undecided Republicans represent "Rust Belt" districts that have lost a lot of jobs to overseas competition. Republican Leader Tom Delay (Texas) acknowledged last week that some of his Republicans are "getting hammered" back in their home districts against CAFTA because many working people are wary of free trade - believing trade pacts like the North American Free Trade Agreement and unfair trade practices by countries like China have cost US jobs. |
For quite a few undecided Republicans - and some of the undecided Democrats - sugar is the defining issue. The US sugar industry remains strongly opposed to CAFTA, arguing that increased imports allowed under the agreement will undermine the US sugar program. A promise by the White House last month to block sugar imports from the CAFTA countries and Mexico if the US sugar industry is threatened won the handful of needed votes to pass CAFTA in the Senate, including Florida's two senators. But it did not win over US sugar producers and a number of Florida House members remain undecided. Most Midwestern members representing sugar beet growers are opposed to or leaning against CAFTA. The undecided Florida members say they are still holding out faint hope that the Administration will go further on sugar. US sugar producers want a new program to promote the use of sugar in ethanol production. The Administration, however, has indicated it has done all it intends to do on the issue. Absent a deal that wins the backing of the domestic sugar industry, the Administration will need to lean even harder on Republicans who currently say they are opposed to or leaning against CAFTA. Lawmakers from both sides of the political aisle say they expect the Administration, Republican leaders and the pro-CAFTA business community to exert heavy pressure on members this week - up to and even during the vote. A chief whip for the bill, Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz), predicts a win - but by no more than four votes. He told WTD that the leadership will "twist some Republican arms until they break in a thousand pieces." Further delay, Mr. Kolbe said, would mean certain defeat. While Republicans struggle with their own ancillary issues - such as China's trade practices and restrictions on US agricultural sales to Cuba, Democrats are overwhelmingly opposed to CAFTA, saying it fails to improve conditions for workers in Central America. Mr. Delay last week accused Democratic leaders of using strong-arm tactics to force Democrats who want to support CAFTA to vote against it. But Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif) denied that leaders have been actively whipping against CAFTA. Democratic opposition naturally coalesced against CAFTA because of strong concerns about labor rights problems in the region, she told reporters. She estimated 90 to 95 percent of House Democrats will vote against CAFTA. According to WTD's poll, 180 Democrats are opposed to CAFTA, seven are supporting and 15 are undecided. WTD estimates around 18 Democrats will end up voting for CAFTA. |
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